BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/12
The CBR estimates that this year private consumption will contract 5.6 % and fixed capital investment as much as 10–12 %. Last year, consumer demand grew 1.9 %, while fixed investment fell 2.5 %.
As oil prices will likely remain depressed and domestic investment has dried up, the CBR has had to lower its calculated potential growth of the Russian economy from 2 % a year to around zero. With economic recovery, the CBR sees potential growth rising to around 1 %. Before the 2008–2009 financial crisis, the CBR estimated the economy’s potential growth was in the range of 4.5–5 % a year.
Russian spending on goods imports and revenues from goods exports will each fall this year by about 27–28 %. Although the trade surplus will shrink slightly, the current account surplus will climb from $57 billion last year to $64 billion this year. That is partly due to a fall of 38 % of services imports, which is largely driven by foreign travel.