BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/38
The CBR’s latest forecast assumes an average oil price of $52 a barrel this year and $50 in 2016–2017. The CBR forecasts GDP will contract this year by 3.9–4.4 % and by 0.5–1 % in 2016. The central bank expects it will take at least two years for private consumption and fixed investment to recover from their large declines this year. The CBR notes investor sentiments would remain negative on Russia. In the CBR forecast, Russian imports contract this year by about a fifth and recover only after a couple of years.