BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2016/30
A major factor behind the improved outlooks is an almost across-the-board upward revision of the oil price assumption. Forecasts now put the average price of oil this year in the range of $40 to $45 a barrel, with the price climbing to $45−50 in 2017. Notably, Russia’s economy ministry and the central bank are offering a slightly more cautious assumption of $40 a barrel.
In addition, economy ministry estimates show Russian GDP this year fell only 0.9 % y-o-y in January-June, which was less than previous forecasts. Economic contraction was smaller on brisk growth in oil output, but it seems the GDP slide was mitigated especially by a milder fall of inventories, after inventories had declined strongly for a couple of years. This picture emerges from the first quarter GDP data and the wholesale sector that recovered through last spring.
Forecasts for Russian GDP growth in 2016 and 2017, %