BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2016/43
Even with numerous exceptions granted since China adopted the one-child policy in the late 1970s, China’s demographics have become distorted. China’s dependency ratio is rising rapidly, with large age cohorts reaching pension age and much smaller cohorts entering the labour force. More boys than girls continue to be born. The imbalance is the world’s most severe, even if it has fallen a bit in recent years. In 2015, 114 boys were born for every 100 girls. Such imbalance could lead to social tensions if young people are unable to find a suitable match.
The one-child policy also affects care of the elderly, a job that has traditionally fallen on the shoulders of the children. A Peking University nationwide survey of 20,000 over-45-year-olds found that over half of China’s elderly already live without the assistance and support of their children. The need for public and private elder care has increased.